Shared work
The paper uses “we” throughout and represents a team’s combined literature review, data analysis, policy selection, charts, and conclusions.
Case study · Collaborative data + policy research
Arrest trends, policy reform, and racial disparities.
A three-city analysis asking what changed from 2013–2022, which shifts aligned with major policy events, and why falling totals do not automatically mean disparities are shrinking.
01 · The question
Public debate moves quickly. Structural patterns do not.
Short windows and single-city stories can make ordinary seasonality look like policy impact, or make aggregate declines look like equitable progress. The project compared adult arrest patterns across Washington, DC, Los Angeles, and New York City while mapping selected reforms to the timeline.
Source scope: the submitted paper’s comparable city trend charts cover 2013–2022.
02 · Role and ownership
A collaborative course research project.
Ayotunde’s portfolio contribution
Research collaboration, analytical framing, interpretation of city and policy charts, and written policy synthesis. The case study does not claim sole authorship.
03 · Evidence
See the analysis, not only the summary.
The excerpts below are rendered directly from the submitted paper. Open the PDF for complete methods, citations, limitations, and team context.
04 · Analytical approach
Move from totals to context, composition, and limits.
Step 1
Build comparable series
Organize city, date, and charge-type fields so trend movement can be compared without treating unlike categories as identical.
Step 2
Mark policy events
Place selected reforms, including marijuana decriminalization/legalization and Proposition 47, inside the observed timelines.
Step 3
Test expectations
Use proportion trends and a difference-in-differences comparison to examine whether the direction of change matches the policy claim.
Step 4
Keep caveats visible
Separate association from causation and acknowledge different reporting practices, population context, and data-quality limits.
05 · What emerged
The direction is clear. The explanation is not singular.
Totals fell
Adult arrest totals declined across the three displayed city series from 2013–2022.
Policy effects varied
Reforms aligned with changes in some series, but the mechanisms and timing differed by city.
Composition matters
A lower total does not reveal whether the burden across charge types or racial groups changed equitably.
Implementation matters
The observed trends complicate clean before-and-after narratives, particularly around Proposition 47 and legalization.
06 · Limitations
What the analysis cannot establish.
- City agencies may define, collect, and revise arrest categories differently.
- An arrest is not the same as a crime occurrence, conviction, or measure of public safety.
- Policy timing overlaps with other changes, including COVID-era enforcement shifts.
- The paper notes missing population context in parts of the analysis.
- Associations around policy events do not by themselves establish causal impact.
07 · Artifacts